Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Comentarios alrededor de la reducción de pobreza en el Perú

Personalmente, creo que el tema debe enfocarse con especial énfasis al significado de cada una de las cifras que señalan una reducción de la pobreza en el 2007. Sin embargo, siempre el tema de un mal manejo de las cifras será motivo de discusión. Expondré algunos puntos al respecto.

En primer lugar, "para la elaboración del mencionado informe (sobre la reducción de la pobreza en el Perú), el INEI instaló un comité asesor conformado por Javier Herrera (IRD), Renos Vakis (BM), Juan Pichihua y Javier Kapsoli (MEF), Judith Guabloche (BCR), Javier Escobal (GRADE), José Rodríguez (PUCP), Gustavo Yamada (UP), Miguel Macedo (MIMDES) y Félix Grández (Mesa de Concertación de Lucha contra la Pobreza)" (fuente aquí).

Eso significa que el equipo técnico ha sido conformado por gente en su mayoría capaz. Conozco a algunos (Yamada, Escobal y Kapsoli, específicamente) y dudo que se presten a cualquier manejo sucio por parte de INEI.

Segundo, Farid Matuk se ha quejado y ha atribuido dichas sorprendentes cifras a una selección de muestra inadecuada y arbitrariamente escogida en función de los intereses del INEI y, consiguientemente, del gobierno. Bueno, si vieron la entrevista que el domigo 1 de junio, en su programa Sin Rodeos, hizo Hans Landolt a Gustavo Yamada y Javier Escobal, este último señaló que, si se utilizaba la muestra recomendada por el ex-jefe del INEI, los resultados hubiesen arrojado cifras aun más alentadoras (un punto porcentual de menos pobreza en el país). Argumento descartado.

Tercero, Alejandro Toledo (BA, UCSF; PhD, Stanford) declaró que no creía en las cifras presentadas por INEI. Ello debido a que ni China ni India habían reducido su pobreza a tasas tan altas (leer El Comercio aquí). Bueno, ayer, en la Hora N, Javier Escobal (y la lucidez que lo caracteriza) mencionó una lista de países que, en efecto, habían reducido en un año su pobreza en más de 5 puntos porcentuales. Lamentablemente, no tengo la lista exacta, pero esta incluía países como Chile, Colombia, etc. Es decir, países no muy lejanos al nuestro. En total eran más de 40 casos, eso sí recuerdo bien. Otro argumento descartado.

Finalmente, y regresando al tema de saber interpretar los número del último informe de INEI, esta reducción no hace más que revelar el carácter ineficiente del gasto público y el canon destinado a los gobiernos regionales. Si desagregamos las cifras, vemos que "la selva es la región que presentó la mayor disminución de pobreza, pasando de 56,6%, registrado en el 2006, a 48,4%, representando una disminución de 8,2 puntos porcentuales" (fuente aquí). ¿Eso qué significa? Que son los departamentos en que se desarrolla actividad informal los que reducen su pobreza (¿minería informal?). Sin embargo, departamentos como Cajamarca (¿Yanacocha y cía?) mantienen índices de pobreza espantosos (64.5%).

Estos últimos datos revelan falencias sensibles en términos de focalización e inversión social, mas no de sucio manejo de cifras de INEI.

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